Crystal ball stuff

Here is our 5 cents of trends which we at Markt In Zicht (market & consumer trends research agency) recently compiled.

best,
Raymond Kollau

ANCILLARY REVENUES. In 2009 more full service airlines will turn to ancillary sales in order to sell more to the same passenger. This does not mean that the full-service product will be unbundled, just like LCC's or Air Canada do, but legacy carriers will selectively add extras to their product for a fee. Creative thinking and experimentation will be needed to balance additional revenues with the core value proposition, and to soften growing dissatisfaction of FFP members, who see their once-exclusive perks being monetized by airlines.

ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATIONS. Stricter travel policies will increase corporate use of teleconferencing and online collaboration tools. A recent survey from the U.S Travel Industry Association showed that in the U.S, 35% of trips are for company internal reasons and 81% of survey participants think technology can replace this kind of travel to a large extent. Furthermore, an increase in the role of rail in business travel can be expected as a result of EU rail deregulation in 2010. Train travel is increasingly seen as a cheaper, cleaner and faster form of transport.

SELF SERVICE NATION. Self-service is basically about the exchange of value: Passengers are empowered with more control, choice and speed, while airlines can reduce costs. Thanks to technology advances, customers can now book and manage their flights online, check-in remotely, select their preferred seats, tag luggage, biometric security and even board themselves. And, the Internet as distribution channel will continue to increase as customers these days are looking online to find the best value for their money and airlines are looking to cut distribution costs as much as possible.

TRAVEL 2.0. Travel 2.0 is all about connecting travellers online and making the market more transparent. At one hand, the Internet provides consumers with information that was not accessible before (consumer reviews, price comparisons, price forecasts) through websites such as Flyertalk, SeatGuru, Kayak and FareCast. At the other hand, social technologies allow customers to communicate in new ways with one another and share their experiences and preferences. In 2009, more airlines will decide that instead of ignoring, they will have to embrace these new ways of interactivity, for example by means of the socalled ‘3 C’s’: cooperation, conversation and community.

LEFT & RIGHT BRAIN CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT. Last, but not least, in 2009 airlines will be looking to differentiate themselves by focussing even more on the customer experience, especially as marketing budgets are being cut. Today, “the experience is the marketing”, since traditional 1-way marketing messages don’t work anymore and customers share their experiences online. As a result, getting the basics right is more important than ever. Many airlines are establishing positions like a ‘Customer Experience Officer’ as part of an emerging discipline called ‘Customer Experience Management’ (CEM), defined as “the critical review of the customer experience a customer has with an organization through the eyes of that customer”. CEM helps the enterprise see the customer with the 'right brain', concerned with perceptions, feelings and interactions that are harder to quantify, in addition to the more analytical 'left brain' CRM tools and processes.

Here's my Crystal Ball thoughts for 2009. Mine may be a bit simpler than some of the posters here. My business is involved in leisure travel based in the United States.
1. The river cruise market has too much capacity and pricing will be forced lower by Spring.
2. Far greater use of personal frequent flyer miles as airfares to Europe will increase.
3. Caribbean cruises from the USA will increase more than 15%.
thanks Craig P.